Andrew Vaughn's hits props have been severely underperforming, going under in 70% of games over the last 10 contests with a brutal -0.7 differential versus his typical line. The White Sox first baseman is averaging just 1.0 hits against a standard 1.7 line, creating strong under value.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Vaughn's recent hitting struggles represent a clear departure from his seasonal baseline, with the first baseman managing just 10 hits across his last 10 games. This 1.0 hits per game average sits well below the typical 1.7 line that books have been setting, suggesting either slow line adjustment or legitimate concern about his current form. The 70% under rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects a hitter who's genuinely struggling to find consistent contact. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence of the struggles, with Vaughn recording a devastating six-game under streak before his recent two-game over run. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose props haven't caught up to his current reality. Without splits data to identify specific vulnerabilities, we're looking at a broader hitting malaise that's affected Vaughn regardless of opponent or situation. The recent two-game over streak might suggest some improvement, but it's not enough to overcome the overwhelming evidence of a hitter in a genuine slump. Books appear slow to adjust, maintaining lines that reflect Vaughn's season-long performance rather than his current struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Vaughn's 70% under rate and -0.7 differential suggest books haven't fully adjusted to his current struggles. The ideal spot is when lines remain at 1.5+ hits, particularly against quality pitching where his contact issues become magnified. Main risk is the recent two-game over streak indicating potential breakout from his slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Andrew Vaughn has gone 3-7 over/under on his hits props in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's averaging 1.0 hits per game against lines typically set around 1.7, creating a significant -0.7 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Andrew Vaughn's hits props. His 70% under rate and -0.7 differential show clear value on the under, especially when books set lines at 1.5+ hits. Wait for favorable lines that don't reflect his current struggles.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Hits last 10 games?
Andrew Vaughn is averaging 1.0 hits per game over his last 10 contests, well below the typical 1.7 line that sportsbooks have been setting. This -0.7 differential represents significant underperformance and potential line value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Vaughn hits unders when lines remain at 1.5+ hits, particularly against quality starting pitching. His contact issues are most exploitable when books haven't adjusted lines to reflect his current 1.0 hits per game average.