Andrew Vaughn's hits props present a clear under opportunity, with the market overestimating his consistency at 44.1% over rate across 93 games. His 0.94 average sits well below the typical 1.11 line, creating sustainable value on the under with positive 6.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture of market inefficiency around Vaughn's hitting props. His 41-52 under record reflects a fundamental disconnect between perception and reality for a player who has struggled to find consistent offensive rhythm. The 0.94 hits per game average against a 1.11 line represents a significant 15.3% gap that suggests books are pricing in upside that simply hasn't materialized. This isn't a small sample quirk—93 games provide robust evidence of a player whose contact skills and approach don't support the market's expectations. The -15.8% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overvaluing Vaughn's ability to reach multi-hit games, while the positive 6.7% under ROI demonstrates the edge available to contrarian bettors. His recent 2-game over streak shouldn't overshadow the longer 7-game under streak that better represents his baseline performance. Without significant changes to his approach or lineup protection, Vaughn's hit totals should continue trending below market expectations, making this one of the more reliable under plays in baseball props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.17-hit differential between Vaughn's average and typical lines creates consistent value, supported by positive under ROI across a substantial sample. Target this play when lines sit at 1.0 or higher, as Vaughn's contact profile suggests he'll fall short more often than not. Main risk is a hot streak inflating short-term numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Hits prop record all games?
Andrew Vaughn's hits prop record stands at 41-52 across all games, translating to a 44.1% over rate. This under-heavy performance spans 93 games from May 2023 through September 2024, showing consistent market mispricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Hits all games?
Bet under on Andrew Vaughn's hits props. His 0.94 average sits well below typical 1.11 lines, and under bets have generated positive 6.7% ROI while overs lose -15.8%. The 93-game sample provides strong statistical backing.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Hits all games?
Andrew Vaughn averages 0.94 hits per game across all situations. This sits 0.17 hits below the standard 1.11 line, creating a meaningful gap that translates to consistent under value over time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Vaughn hits unders when lines reach 1.0 or higher. His baseline performance suggests he'll fall short of inflated expectations more often than not, making higher-lined games the premium betting spots.