Andrew Benintendi has been an under machine over his last 10 games, posting just a 20% over rate while averaging 0.8 hits against a 1.6 line. The -0.8 differential represents a massive 50% shortfall that has generated +52.7% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Benintendi's hit production has cratered over this 10-game stretch, with his 0.8 average representing a stunning 50% miss rate against the 1.6 line. This isn't just bad luck - it's systematic underperformance that suggests either a mechanical issue, injury concern, or fundamental shift in his approach. The 20% over rate is particularly damning for a player whose career contact skills typically generate more consistent hit totals. Most telling is the streak data: his longest over streak was just 2 games while he endured a brutal 6-game under run, indicating this isn't random variance but sustained struggle. The -61.8% ROI on overs speaks to books being slow to adjust, creating persistent value on the under. However, regression is always a threat with such extreme numbers. Benintendi's career profile suggests he's capable of multi-hit games that could quickly shift this trend. The key question is whether this represents a temporary slump or something more concerning about his swing mechanics or health status that hasn't been publicly disclosed.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 50% shortfall against the line is too significant to ignore, especially with books potentially slow to adjust. Target games where Benintendi faces quality pitching or in poor weather conditions that could extend his struggles. Main risk is regression - career hitters don't typically sustain 20% over rates indefinitely, and one multi-hit explosion could signal the trend's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Benintendi's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Benintendi has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging 0.8 hits per game against a typical 1.6 line, creating a significant -0.8 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Benintendi Hits last 10 games?
Lean under on Benintendi's hits props. The 50% shortfall against the line and +52.7% under ROI suggest books haven't fully adjusted to his recent struggles. Target spots against quality pitching for maximum edge.
What's Andrew Benintendi's average Hits last 10 games?
Benintendi is averaging just 0.8 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.6 line. This -0.8 differential represents a massive 50% miss rate that has consistently favored under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Benintendi under props when facing quality starting pitching or in adverse weather conditions. His current 20% over rate suggests maximum value exists in spots where external factors could extend his contact struggles.