Alec Burleson's total bases prop presents one of the most extreme trends in baseball, going 0-10 on overs with a catastrophic -2.8 differential from his 3.6 line. This Cardinals first baseman is averaging just 0.8 total bases per game over this stretch, creating massive value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Burleson's total bases collapse represents a perfect storm of declining production and inflated lines. Averaging 0.8 total bases against a 3.6 line suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a fundamental shift in his role that oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for. The 10-game sample size is substantial enough to indicate this isn't mere variance—something has fundamentally changed in Burleson's approach or the Cardinals' usage of him. The -100% ROI on overs tells the story of a prop that's been consistently mispriced, likely due to books being slow to adjust to his diminished production. This level of underperformance typically stems from either reduced playing time, batting lower in the order, or facing tougher pitching matchups. The complete absence of even a single over suggests systematic issues rather than random cold streaks. While regression toward his historical norms is always possible, the consistency of this underperformance indicates structural changes that make the under a compelling play until the line adjusts significantly downward.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Burleson's 0.8 total bases average creates a massive 2.8-base cushion against his typical line, representing one of the most mispriced props in the market. The 10-game sample eliminates variance concerns, pointing to fundamental changes in his production. Target this under in any spot where the line remains above 2.5, with ideal value when books maintain the 3.6 line. Primary risk is immediate role change or return to leadoff duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Burleson went 0-10 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, averaging just 0.8 total bases against a typical 3.6 line. This created a perfect under record with a -2.8 differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Burleson's 0.8 average creates massive value against typical 3.6 lines, and the 10-game sample shows systematic underperformance rather than random variance.
What's Alec Burleson's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Burleson averaged 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games, running 2.8 bases below his typical 3.6 line. This represents one of the largest negative differentials in current baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson total bases unders when lines remain above 2.5, with peak value at 3.6. Avoid if he moves to leadoff or shows signs of increased playing time in favorable matchups.