Alec Burleson's hits prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -0.6 differential from the 1.5 line. The Cardinals first baseman is averaging only 0.9 hits per game during this stretch, creating a strong lean under with this persistent trend.
Expert Analysis
Alec Burleson's hitting struggles over his last 10 games represent more than just a cold streak—they reveal fundamental issues that make the under a compelling play. Averaging 0.9 hits against a 1.5 line creates a massive -0.6 differential that's rarely sustainable by chance alone. The Cardinals first baseman has managed multiple hits in just two of ten contests, with a devastating six-game under streak highlighting his consistency issues at the plate. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the sample size coinciding with late-season pressure and potential lineup adjustments as St. Louis evaluated their roster. Burleson's 20% over rate suggests either the market is slow to adjust to his declining form or there are underlying mechanical issues affecting his contact quality. The 52.7% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but recreational bettors may still be inflating the line based on earlier-season performance. With no favorable splits or recent form data to suggest improvement, Burleson appears trapped in a pattern where even modest expectations become difficult hurdles. The persistence of this trend through different opponents and game situations strengthens the case that this isn't merely variance but a genuine skill regression that books haven't fully accounted for in their pricing.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Alec Burleson's 20% over rate and -0.6 differential from the 1.5 hits line creates a clear mathematical edge that hasn't been properly corrected by the market. The six-game under streak within this sample demonstrates consistency in his struggles, making the under the superior play when facing standard 1.5 hit lines. Primary risk is a potential dead cat bounce or favorable matchup against struggling pitching that could temporarily inflate his hit totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Alec Burleson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Alec Burleson has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends among regular players, with the under cashing in 8 of 10 contests.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Alec Burleson's hits props. His 0.9 average against typical 1.5 lines creates a significant edge, supported by 52.7% ROI on unders. The trend shows consistency across different matchups and situations.
What's Alec Burleson's average Hits last 10 games?
Alec Burleson is averaging 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.6 hits below the standard 1.5 line. This massive differential suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to his recent struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alec Burleson hits unders when facing standard 1.5 lines, especially against quality pitching or in day games where his struggles may be amplified. Avoid when books adjust to 1.0 or 0.5, reducing the mathematical edge.