Alec Bohm's Total Bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a massive -1.8 differential from the typical 3.1 line. Currently riding a three-game under streak, this represents a strong LEAN UNDER opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Alec Bohm's Total Bases production has fallen off a cliff over his last 10 games, averaging just 1.3 total bases against lines consistently set around 3.1. This 1.8-base differential represents a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and Bohm's actual output. The 20.0% over rate is particularly striking for a player who typically sees moderate lines, suggesting either a prolonged slump or underlying mechanical issues affecting his power production. What makes this trend especially compelling is the consistency of the underperformance — Bohm isn't alternating between explosive and quiet nights, but rather delivering steady mediocrity. The current three-game under streak indicates the trend has momentum, and with books slow to adjust lines downward, the value remains heavily skewed toward unders. However, regression concerns are legitimate given Bohm's track record, and a single multi-hit game could quickly shift both his average and the betting landscape. The lack of available split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the raw numbers suggest books are still pricing Bohm based on season-long production rather than his recent form.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bohm's 1.3 average against 3.1 lines creates clear value, especially with the three-game under streak showing trend persistence. Target games where books maintain standard lines around 3.0-3.5, as the 1.8-base differential provides substantial cushion. Main risk is natural regression to his career norms, but the consistency of recent underperformance suggests this has staying power through the sample's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Bohm's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Bohm went 2-8-0 on Total Bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. Under bettors enjoyed a +52.7% ROI while over bettors lost -61.8%, making this one of the most profitable under trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Bohm Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Bohm's Total Bases props. His 1.3 average is 1.8 bases below typical lines around 3.1, creating massive value for under bettors. The three-game under streak shows the trend has clear momentum.
What's Alec Bohm's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Bohm averaged just 1.3 Total Bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines of 3.1, creating a massive -1.8 differential. This represents one of the largest gaps between production and market expectations in recent props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where books maintain standard Total Bases lines around 3.0-3.5 for Bohm. The larger the line relative to his 1.3 recent average, the better the under value becomes for bettors.