Alec Bohm has been a consistent under performer on his hits prop, going 4-6-0 (40% overs) over his last 10 games with a -0.4 differential against the 1.4 line. The under trend shows +14.6% ROI with three consecutive unders currently active. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Alec Bohm's hits prop has become a reliable fade over his last 10-game sample, averaging exactly 1.0 hits against a typical 1.4 line. This 0.4-hit deficit represents meaningful value, especially considering the consistency of the underperformance. The Phillies third baseman's 40% over rate suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his recent form or there are underlying factors suppressing his hit production. The current three-game under streak indicates momentum, though regression is always possible with such a small sample. What's particularly compelling is the ROI disparity - while overs have lost bettors 23.6%, unders have generated positive 14.6% returns. This suggests the line hasn't fully corrected for Bohm's recent struggles. The lack of available split data prevents deeper context analysis, but the raw numbers paint a clear picture of a player failing to meet market expectations. Given Bohm's career profile as a contact hitter, this underperformance could signal temporary mechanical issues or unfavorable matchup sequencing. However, the consistency of the trend across 10 games suggests this isn't merely random variance but a exploitable pattern that sharp bettors should consider.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Alec Bohm's 0.4-hit deficit against the line over 10 games, combined with positive under ROI and a current three-game under streak, creates a compelling fade opportunity. The 40% over rate indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his recent form. Primary risk is regression to career norms, but the trend's consistency suggests continued value on unders until the line corrects.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Bohm's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Alec Bohm has gone 4-6-0 on his hits over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging exactly 1.0 hits per game against a typical 1.4 line, creating a -0.4 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Bohm Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Alec Bohm's hits props. His 40% over rate and -0.4 differential against the line over 10 games, plus positive 14.6% under ROI, creates a clear edge. The three-game under streak adds momentum to this trend.
What's Alec Bohm's average Hits last 10 games?
Alec Bohm is averaging 1.0 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.4 line, creating a significant 0.4-hit deficit. This underperformance has been consistent, making unders profitable at +14.6% ROI during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alec Bohm hits unders when the line remains at 1.4 or higher, especially during his current cold streak. The best opportunities come when books haven't adjusted for his recent 1.0 hits per game average, maintaining the profitable gap.