Akil Baddoo's Total Bases prop in away games presents a clear under opportunity with a brutal 31.6% over rate across 19 games. His 1.21 average sits 0.1 bases below typical lines, while the under has generated +30.6% ROI. The current seven-game under streak reinforces this systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Akil Baddoo's road struggles create a compelling Total Bases under case that goes beyond simple variance. His 1.21 average in away games consistently falls short of standard 1.29 lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his road performance decline. The -39.7% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation, while the +30.6% under return demonstrates sustainable profit potential. Baddoo's current seven-game under streak represents his longest drought, but rather than signaling regression, it reinforces the underlying pattern of diminished road production. The 31.6% over rate across 19 games provides robust sample size evidence that this isn't temporary variance. Road environments often expose hitters' mechanical flaws and reduce comfort levels, particularly for younger players still developing consistency. Baddoo's Total Bases production appears particularly susceptible to these road factors, creating persistent value on unders. The lack of meaningful over streaks (longest just three games) suggests his road ceiling remains capped, making this trend more likely to continue than reverse.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence on Akil Baddoo's Total Bases in away games. The 31.6% over rate and +30.6% under ROI create clear value, while his 1.21 average consistently trails typical lines. Target this when lines sit at 1.5 or higher for maximum edge. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or extended hot streaks that could temporarily inflate his road production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Akil Baddoo's Total Bases prop record away games?
Akil Baddoo's Total Bases prop record in away games shows 6 overs, 13 unders, and 0 pushes across 19 games, resulting in a poor 31.6% over rate that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Akil Baddoo Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Akil Baddoo's Total Bases in away games. His 31.6% over rate and +30.6% under ROI create clear value, especially with his current seven-game under streak reinforcing the trend.
What's Akil Baddoo's average Total Bases away games?
Akil Baddoo averages 1.21 Total Bases in away games, which sits 0.1 bases below the typical 1.29 line. This consistent shortfall creates recurring value for under bettors in road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Akil Baddoo's Total Bases unders when lines reach 1.5 or higher in away games. His road struggles are most pronounced against quality pitching, making these spots ideal for maximizing edge.