Akil Baddoo's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting just 8.3% overs with a brutal 2-22-0 record. Currently riding a 13-game under streak, Baddoo averages 0.08 homers per game against a 0.5 line. This is a clear LEAN UNDER situation.
Expert Analysis
Akil Baddoo's home run production represents a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. Averaging just 0.08 homers per game against the standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that reflects his limited power profile. The 13-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the norm for a player whose swing path and approach prioritize contact over lift. Baddoo's career trajectory shows a player who peaked early in his rookie season but has settled into a slap-hitting role with minimal over-the-fence threat. The 8.3% over rate across 24 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +75% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profitability. Regression concerns are minimal given Baddoo's consistent approach and the Tigers' offensive environment. The lack of split variations suggests this trend holds regardless of matchup specifics, making it particularly reliable. Sportsbooks continue setting the line at 0.5, likely banking on casual bettors overvaluing his occasional highlight-reel moments, but the underlying metrics paint a clear picture of a player whose power output rarely justifies optimistic projections.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Baddoo's 0.08 homer average creates substantial value against the 0.5 line, supported by an active 13-game under streak and historically profitable 75% ROI. Target this prop when the line remains at 0.5, especially in neutral or pitcher-friendly matchups. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or small sample variance, but the overwhelming trend data supports continued under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Akil Baddoo's Home Runs prop record all games?
Akil Baddoo's home run prop record stands at 2-22-0 over/under across 24 games, hitting just 8.3% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, with unders hitting at an exceptional 91.7% rate from May 2023 through August 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Akil Baddoo Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Baddoo's home runs with strong confidence. His 0.08 average against the 0.5 line, combined with a 13-game under streak and 75% ROI on unders, creates compelling value. The overwhelming statistical evidence supports continued under betting on this prop.
What's Akil Baddoo's average Home Runs all games?
Baddoo averages 0.08 home runs per game, creating a significant -0.4 differential against the standard 0.5 betting line. This massive gap between production and market expectation represents the core value proposition for under bettors seeking consistent profits on his power props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baddoo's home run unders when the line stays at 0.5, particularly against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His consistent low power output makes this prop less matchup-dependent than typical power plays, creating betting opportunities in most game situations.