Aaron Judge's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over his last 10 games with a brutal -1.4 differential versus the line. The Yankees slugger is averaging only 1.9 total bases against a typical 3.3 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Judge's precipitous decline in total bases production stems from a perfect storm of late-season factors that books haven't adequately adjusted for. The 1.9 average represents a stunning 42% shortfall from his typical line, suggesting either injury concerns, rest management, or opposing pitchers finally solving his approach. The 5-game under streak within this sample indicates sustained struggles rather than random variance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—Judge hasn't just been slightly under, he's been dramatically under, creating massive value gaps. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of inflated expectations meeting harsh reality. Late September baseball often features cautious usage for playoff-bound stars, and Judge's reduced power output aligns with teams prioritizing health over individual statistics. The fact that his longest over streak was just one game suggests fundamental changes in either his swing mechanics, pitch selection, or the quality of pitches he's seeing. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, likely anchored to Judge's elite reputation and season-long numbers that no longer reflect current form.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and massive -1.4 differential create clear value, but sample size limitations prevent higher conviction. Target games where Judge faces quality pitching or in potential rest scenarios. Primary risk is sudden return to form that could quickly eliminate the edge, making this a short-term opportunity requiring close monitoring.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Judge's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Judge has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 20% over rate with a -1.4 average differential versus the betting line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Judge Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Judge's total bases props. The 80% under rate and massive -1.4 differential create clear value, though monitor for any signs of form returning to avoid regression.
What's Aaron Judge's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Judge is averaging just 1.9 total bases over his last 10 games, a stunning 1.4 bases below the typical 3.3 line, representing a 42% shortfall from expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Judge total bases unders when he faces quality pitching or in late-season games where rest management is likely. Avoid when he's well-rested against weaker pitching staffs.