Aaron Judge's total bases prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% of overs across 15 games with a significant -0.7 differential from his typical 3.23 line. The Yankees superstar is averaging only 2.53 total bases per game, creating consistent value on the under with +14.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Judge's total bases struggles stem from a combination of elevated expectations and natural regression from his historic 2022 campaign. The 3.23 line appears inflated, likely pricing in his MVP-caliber ceiling rather than his realistic floor. His 2.53 average suggests books are overvaluing his power output, particularly in a sample spanning late May through September when fatigue typically impacts slugging metrics. The five-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic mispricing. Judge's plate discipline remains elite, but he's seeing fewer hittable pitches as teams pitch around him more frequently. The -23.6% over ROI demonstrates sharp money has already identified this edge, while recreational bettors continue backing the big name. Most concerning for over backers is the consistency of this trend across different opponents and situations, suggesting the fundamental issue is line-setting rather than temporary slumps. Judge's total bases props have become a victim of his own reputation, with oddsmakers failing to adjust quickly enough to his more modest 2024 production levels.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.7 differential and 40% over rate create legitimate value, though Judge's ceiling remains dangerous for under backers. Target this prop when the line sits at 3.0 or higher, avoiding games against weak pitching where variance increases. The main risk is a vintage Judge explosion that can single-handedly destroy the under, but the data suggests consistent profit potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Judge's Total Bases prop record all games?
Aaron Judge's total bases record stands at 6-9-0 over/under across 15 games, hitting just 40.0% of overs. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance relative to the betting line, creating consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Judge Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Aaron Judge's total bases props. The data shows 60% under success rate with +14.6% ROI, while overs lose money at -23.6%. His 2.53 average consistently falls short of typical 3.23 lines.
What's Aaron Judge's average Total Bases all games?
Judge averages 2.53 total bases per game, falling 0.7 bases short of his typical 3.23 betting line. This significant differential indicates the market is overvaluing his power production, creating systematic under value across most games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Judge's total bases unders when lines are 3.0 or higher, particularly against quality pitching staffs. Avoid games versus weak bullpens or in hitter-friendly conditions where his ceiling becomes more dangerous for under backers.