Aaron Judge's hits props show a clear under bias with just 40.0% overs across 15 games, averaging 1.27 hits against a 1.7 line. The -0.43 differential and strong under ROI of 14.6% create a compelling case for fading the slugger's contact rate.
Expert Analysis
Judge's hits struggles reflect a fundamental shift in his approach that books haven't fully adjusted to. The 1.27 average against a 1.7 line represents a massive 25% gap that persists across this 15-game sample. This isn't random variance - it's structural. Judge's power-first mentality means he's hunting specific pitches, leading to more strikeouts and fewer singles that pad hit totals. His 40.0% over rate would be concerning for any hitter, but it's particularly telling for a player of Judge's caliber where books typically set aggressive lines. The current two-game under streak sits within his pattern of extended cold stretches, including a five-game under run that demonstrates how quickly hits can dry up for power hitters. The 14.6% under ROI suggests the market hasn't caught up to this reality, creating ongoing value. Judge's approach prioritizes quality over quantity - he'd rather work deep counts and hunt mistakes than settle for weak contact. This philosophy directly conflicts with what hits props reward, making his under trend more sustainable than typical batting slumps.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 25% gap between Judge's 1.27 average and the typical 1.7 line creates consistent value, supported by a 14.6% under ROI. Target games against quality pitching where Judge's selective approach becomes even more pronounced. Main risk is a hot streak inflating his contact rate, but his power-first mentality suggests this under trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Judge's Hits prop record all games?
Judge's hits prop record shows 6 overs and 9 unders across 15 games for a 40.0% over rate. He's averaging 1.27 hits per game against lines typically set around 1.7, creating a significant -0.43 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Judge Hits all games?
Lean under on Judge's hits props. His 1.27 average versus 1.7 lines creates consistent value, supported by 14.6% under ROI. His power-first approach prioritizes quality at-bats over contact, making unders the sharper play.
What's Aaron Judge's average Hits all games?
Judge averages 1.27 hits per game, significantly below the typical 1.7 line. This -0.43 differential represents a 25% gap, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced contact rate this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Judge hits unders against quality pitching staffs where his selective approach becomes more pronounced. Games with strong opposing starters create the best spots, as Judge will work deeper counts rather than settle for weak contact.