Pittsburgh Pirates Home Underdog After a Win Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Pittsburgh Pirates hold a record of 78-18-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +55.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $53 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 10-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2016 | 8-3-0 | 0.0% | +38.8% |
| 2017 | 7-1-0 | 0.0% | +67.0% |
| 2018 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2019 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2020 | 8-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 5-1-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2022 | 11-2-0 | 0.0% | +61.5% |
| 2023 | 4-4-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Pirates' exceptional performance as home underdogs following victories stems from a perfect storm of psychological momentum and market inefficiency. When Pittsburgh wins on the road or at home, they return to PNC Park with genuine confidence, yet oddsmakers consistently undervalue this emotional lift. The team feeds off the energy of playing with house money - they've already secured a win, so there's reduced pressure while maintaining competitive fire. Pittsburgh's organizational culture under various managers has emphasized scrappy, opportunistic baseball that thrives in underdog scenarios. The Pirates historically perform better when expectations are lowered, allowing their young talent to play freely without the weight of favorite status. PNC Park's unique dimensions and wind patterns also create subtle home-field advantages that visiting teams struggle to adjust to, especially when the Pirates are riding positive momentum. The market's persistent undervaluation likely occurs because bettors remember Pittsburgh's rebuilding years and struggle to recognize when the team is genuinely competitive. Sharp bettors should particularly target this spot when the Pirates are facing division rivals or teams on lengthy road trips, as the combination of familiarity and opponent fatigue amplifies their edge. This trend matters most during summer months when PNC Park's atmosphere is at its peak and the team has found its rhythm.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as home underdog after a win?
The Pittsburgh Pirates have an exceptional 78-18-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to an 81.3% ATS win rate over 96 games.
Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as home underdog after a win profitable?
Yes, betting on the Pirates as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 55.1% ROI. This represents one of the most consistent and profitable betting trends in baseball over the past decade.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Pirates' 81.3% ATS rate in this spot is exceptionally rare and well above typical expectations.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.