Philadelphia Phillies Large Underdog (+7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Philadelphia Phillies hold a record of 191-4-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +87.0% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $170 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 15-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 14-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 12-1-0 | 0.0% | +76.2% |
| 2017 | 25-1-0 | 0.0% | +83.6% |
| 2018 | 19-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 16-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2020 | 13-1-0 | 0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2021 | 22-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2022 | 17-1-0 | 0.0% | +80.3% |
| 2023 | 17-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 21-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Phillies' remarkable performance as massive underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their tendency to play loose when expectations are lowest. Philadelphia has historically thrived in "nothing to lose" scenarios, where the pressure shifts entirely to heavily favored opponents who often struggle with complacency. When installed as such extreme underdogs, the Phillies benefit from superior motivation while their opponents frequently fail to match the intensity required for dominant performances. The team's offensive approach becomes particularly dangerous in these spots, as hitters tend to be more aggressive early in counts when facing elite pitching, leading to unexpected rallies that can swing games. Philadelphia's bullpen depth has consistently allowed them to stay competitive late in games where opponents expect easy victories. The psychological element cannot be understated - when a team is written off completely, they often play with the freedom that produces their best baseball. For bettors, the key insight is recognizing that extreme underdog lines in baseball often represent market overreaction rather than true probability. This trend matters most when the Phillies face ace-level starting pitching in divisional games, where familiarity breeds competitive balance regardless of perceived talent gaps.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philadelphia Phillies's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?
The Philadelphia Phillies have an ATS record of 191-4-0 when they are large underdogs (+7.5 or more) from 2014-2024. This represents an exceptional 97.9% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as large underdogs has been extremely profitable with an 87.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents one of the most profitable betting trends in baseball over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly outpaces the league average, as most teams struggle to cover large spreads consistently. The Phillies' 97.9% ATS rate in this situation is exceptionally rare and well above typical underdog performance.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.