Philadelphia Phillies Home vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Philadelphia Phillies are just 67-68-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 6-5-0 | 0.0% | +4.1% |
| 2015 | 7-6-0 | 0.0% | +2.8% |
| 2016 | 6-1-0 | 0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2017 | 6-17-0 | 0.0% | -50.2% |
| 2018 | 5-6-0 | 0.0% | -13.2% |
| 2019 | 9-11-0 | 0.0% | -14.1% |
| 2020 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2021 | 7-5-0 | 0.0% | +11.4% |
| 2022 | 7-8-0 | 0.0% | -10.9% |
| 2023 | 7-3-0 | 0.0% | +33.6% |
| 2024 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Phillies' underwhelming performance against NL East rivals at home stems from the inherent challenge of divisional familiarity breeding tactical advantages for visiting teams. Division opponents see Citizens Bank Park multiple times per season, allowing them to develop specific game plans for the ballpark's dimensions and conditions. The short porch down the foul lines that typically favors Philadelphia hitters becomes less of an advantage when opposing pitchers adjust their approach accordingly. Philadelphia's inconsistent roster construction over this period has amplified these struggles. The franchise's rebuild years coincided with veteran-heavy division rivals who knew how to exploit the Phillies' developmental pitching staff. Teams like Atlanta and Washington capitalized on Philadelphia's tendency to rely heavily on their offensive output, implementing patient approaches that exposed bullpen weaknesses in high-leverage situations. The psychological pressure of defending home turf against familiar foes creates additional complications. Phillies players often press in these matchups, leading to aggressive swings and defensive miscues that sharp division rivals exploit ruthlessly. Bettors should focus on this trend during early-season series when the Phillies are still adjusting to roster changes, as established division rivals typically maintain better continuity and game-planning advantages during these crucial matchups.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philadelphia Phillies's ATS record as home vs division rival?
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 67-68-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 49.6% cover rate over 135 games.
Is betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as home vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Philadelphia Phillies at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, showing a -5.2% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Phillies in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is slightly below the expected 50% ATS rate, though the -5.2% ROI indicates underperformance when accounting for betting juice. The Phillies have struggled to cover spreads in these divisional home games compared to typical betting expectations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.