Philadelphia Phillies Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Philadelphia Phillies are just 15-80-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -69.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +69.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-7-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2016 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2017 | 2-10-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2018 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2019 | 1-11-0 | 0.0% | -84.1% |
| 2020 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2021 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2022 | 4-9-0 | 0.0% | -41.3% |
| 2023 | 0-11-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Phillies' abysmal performance as home favorites following losses stems from a toxic combination of organizational pressure and psychological fragility that has plagued the franchise for years. Philadelphia's passionate fanbase creates an amplified home environment where expectations soar after setbacks, but this intensity often backfires when the team carries momentum-killing frustration from recent defeats. The Phillies have historically struggled with mental toughness, particularly during their rebuilding years when young players and inconsistent veterans couldn't handle the weight of bouncing back in high-pressure spots. This pattern reveals a franchise that has consistently overvalued at home, especially when oddsmakers factor in the supposed advantage of Citizens Bank Park and motivated players seeking redemption. The betting public tends to overreact to Philadelphia's home field advantage while underestimating how poorly this organization has historically responded to adversity. The team's inability to make necessary adjustments after losses, combined with a tendency to press when favored, creates a perfect storm for underperformance. Smart bettors should target Philadelphia's opponents when the Phillies are laying runs at home after dropping their previous game, particularly against divisional rivals where the emotional stakes run highest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philadelphia Phillies's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Philadelphia Phillies have an ATS record of 15-80-0 (15.8% win rate) as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball over this period.
Is betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as home favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -69.9% ROI. This trend has consistently lost money for bettors over the past decade.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads in similar situations. The Phillies' 15.8% cover rate in this spot is exceptionally poor compared to normal expectations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.