The public often underestimates the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Philadelphia Phillies hold a record of 86-14-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +64.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $64 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record86-14-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size100 games
ROI+64.2%
Units Won+64.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-0-00.0%+90.9%
20159-2-00.0%+56.2%
201610-2-00.0%+59.1%
20178-4-00.0%+27.3%
20188-0-00.0%+90.9%
20196-1-00.0%+63.6%
20205-3-00.0%+19.3%
20216-0-00.0%+90.9%
202210-0-00.0%+90.9%
202310-1-00.0%+73.5%
202410-1-00.0%+73.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Phillies' exceptional performance as home underdogs following victories stems from a potent combination of psychological momentum and Citizens Bank Park's unique characteristics. When Philadelphia wins on the road or at home, the confidence boost carries into the next game, particularly when oddsmakers underestimate their ability to sustain success. The ballpark itself amplifies this effect - its dimensions favor the Phillies' typically power-heavy lineups, and the passionate Philadelphia fanbase creates an intimidating atmosphere that visiting teams struggle to handle when the home team enters with swagger. This trend also reflects a fundamental market inefficiency where sportsbooks overreact to recent Phillies struggles or overvalue their opponents. Philadelphia's roster construction, built around veteran leadership and clutch performers, thrives in these spots where external expectations remain low despite recent success. The team's ability to leverage home field advantage becomes magnified when they're catching plus-money, creating tremendous value for sharp bettors. The key insight for bettors is to monitor the Phillies' recent form and look for spots where they're getting underdog odds at home after any type of victory, regardless of how that win was achieved. This trend carries maximum weight during mid-season stretches when the Phillies are playing well but haven't yet gained respect from oddsmakers or the betting public.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philadelphia Phillies's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Philadelphia Phillies have an outstanding 86-14-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents an 86% ATS win rate over 100 games in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Phillies as home underdogs after a win has been extremely profitable with a 64.2% ROI. This trend has generated consistent returns over the 11-year period from 2014-2024.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 86% ATS win rate significantly outperforms the typical 50% league average for ATS betting. The Phillies' performance in this situation ranks among the most profitable betting trends in baseball.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.