The data suggests caution when backing the New York Mets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the New York Mets are just 206-218-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.2%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record206-218-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size424 games
ROI-7.2%
Units Won-30.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201429-27-00.0%-1.1%
201522-17-00.0%+7.7%
201615-18-00.0%-13.2%
201714-18-00.0%-16.5%
201826-20-00.0%+7.9%
20199-23-00.0%-46.3%
202020-14-00.0%+12.3%
202117-19-00.0%-9.8%
202217-11-00.0%+15.9%
202320-22-00.0%-9.1%
202417-29-00.0%-29.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mets' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from their organizational tendency to over-prepare for divisional rivals while treating interleague matchups as secondary priorities. This approach creates a psychological disconnect where players lack the emotional intensity that typically drives their best performances against familiar National League East foes. The franchise's front office has historically built rosters specifically designed to compete within their division, often neglecting the strategic adjustments needed for American League pitching styles and designated hitter dynamics. New York's pitching staff particularly struggles with the unfamiliar offensive approaches of AL hitters, who tend to be more aggressive early in counts compared to their NL counterparts. The Mets' analytical approach, heavily weighted toward NL scouting reports and tendencies, leaves them vulnerable when facing teams they see infrequently. Additionally, the pressure of performing in unfamiliar ballparks without the comfort of their home crowd support often exposes the team's mental fragility during crucial moments. Bettors should target fading the Mets when they're road favorites against American League opponents, as this scenario amplifies their historical weaknesses while inflating public perception of their capabilities. This trend carries maximum significance during interleague series in June and July when the sample size peaks and the Mets face their most challenging non-conference scheduling clusters.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New York Mets's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?

The New York Mets have a 206-218 ATS record when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.6% ATS win rate over 424 total games.

Is betting on the New York Mets as vs non-conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the New York Mets against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -7.2% ROI over the past decade. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Mets in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Mets' 48.6% ATS win rate against non-conference opponents is below the expected 50% break-even point for spread betting. This underperformance suggests the betting market has generally set accurate or slightly favorable lines against New York in interleague play.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.