New York Mets Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the New York Mets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the New York Mets hold a record of 53-19-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +40.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $30 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2015 | 5-3-1 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2016 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 12-3-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2019 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2020 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2021 | 7-2-0 | 0.0% | +48.5% |
| 2022 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 9-1-0 | 0.0% | +71.8% |
| 2024 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Mets' exceptional performance as small underdogs stems from their organizational culture of thriving when expectations are lowered. This franchise has historically played with a chip on their shoulder, particularly when oddsmakers suggest they're slightly inferior to their opponent. The narrow spread indicates competitive matchups where talent gaps are minimal, allowing New York's veteran leadership and clutch gene to shine through. Small underdog situations often arise when the Mets face quality opponents at home or when their starting rotation gets overlooked despite strong underlying metrics. The team's analytical approach under recent front office regimes has excelled at identifying value in these spots, often deploying optimal lineups and bullpen usage when games are expected to be tight. Their patient offensive approach works particularly well in close contests, as they consistently work deep counts and capitalize on opponent mistakes. The psychological edge cannot be understated - this organization feeds off being underestimated, and small underdog lines provide just enough disrespect to fuel their competitive fire without the overwhelming pressure that comes with being heavy favorites. This trend carries maximum weight during divisional matchups and interleague play where familiarity breeds competitive balance, creating the perfect storm for Mets value.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New York Mets's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The New York Mets have an outstanding 53-19-1 ATS record when playing as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 73.6% ATS win rate over 73 games in this situation.
Is betting on the New York Mets as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Mets as small underdogs has been highly profitable with a 40.5% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents exceptional value, as the team consistently outperforms expectations when getting 1-3 points.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly exceeds league average, as most teams hover around 50% ATS and break-even ROI. The Mets' 73.6% ATS rate and 40.5% ROI in this spot represents elite contrarian value over the 11-year period.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.