New York Mets Medium Favorite (-3.5 to -7) Betting Trend

The Mets' catastrophic performance as medium favorites stems from a fundamental organizational tendency to crumble under moderate expectations. Unlike heavy favorites where talent gaps are obvious, medium favorite situations create a psychological sweet spot where the Mets feel entitled to victory without the focus that comes with being underdogs. This franchise has historically struggled with consistency and mental toughness, traits that become magnified when they're expected to win by a moderate margin against respectable competition. New York's pitching depth issues become particularly exposed in these spots, as medium favorite lines often reflect situations where their ace isn't on the mound but they're still laying significant chalk. The Mets have repeatedly shown they cannot be trusted when relying on back-end rotation arms or when their bullpen needs to protect modest leads. Their offensive inconsistency compounds this problem, as they frequently fail to provide the run support necessary to justify laying runs against competent opponents. The actionable insight here is crystal clear: fade the Mets as medium favorites, particularly in divisional games or when their rotation turns over after their top starter. This trend matters most during summer months when roster depth is tested and in series where they're expected to take care of business against middle-tier competition.