The data suggests caution when backing the New York Mets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the New York Mets are just 34-171-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -68.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +68.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record34-171-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size205 games
ROI-68.3%
Units Won-140.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-18-00.0%-58.5%
20155-17-00.0%-56.6%
20160-12-00.0%-100.0%
20176-13-00.0%-39.7%
20185-12-00.0%-43.9%
20190-16-00.0%-100.0%
20205-9-00.0%-31.8%
20212-18-00.0%-80.9%
20224-18-00.0%-65.3%
20231-21-00.0%-91.3%
20241-17-00.0%-89.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mets' historically poor performance as road favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual road capabilities. New York has consistently struggled with the mental aspects of being expected to win away from home, often appearing tight and pressing when favored in hostile environments. This psychological burden manifests most clearly in their approach at the plate, where they've shown a tendency to chase pitches and abandon their disciplined game plan when carrying the favorite tag on the road. The franchise's organizational culture has long emphasized the comfort of Citi Field, where their pitching staff performs notably better and their hitters benefit from familiar sight lines. When thrust into the road favorite role, the Mets often face opponents playing with house money who can be more aggressive and creative tactically. Their pitchers frequently struggle with command in these spots, while their offense becomes overly selective, waiting for perfect pitches that rarely come against motivated underdogs. Smart bettors should strongly consider fading the Mets whenever they're road chalk, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds contempt. This trend carries maximum weight during the summer months when fatigue compounds their road struggles and September when playoff pressure intensifies their mental challenges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New York Mets's ATS record as away favorite?

The New York Mets have a 34-171-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 34 out of 205 games. This represents a 16.6% cover rate, meaning they've failed to cover the spread 83.4% of the time in this situation.

Is betting on the New York Mets as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the New York Mets as away favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -68.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 68 cents for every dollar wagered on the Mets in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as teams typically cover the spread around 50% of the time. The Mets' 16.6% cover rate as away favorites represents one of the worst ATS trends in MLB over this time period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.