The data suggests caution when backing the New York Mets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the New York Mets are just 184-189-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.8%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record184-189-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size374 games
ROI-5.8%
Units Won-21.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201429-19-00.0%+15.3%
201515-14-00.0%-1.2%
201612-17-00.0%-21.0%
201719-16-10.0%+3.6%
201820-20-00.0%-4.5%
201912-19-00.0%-26.1%
202012-9-00.0%+9.1%
202113-21-00.0%-27.0%
202219-13-00.0%+13.3%
202319-19-00.0%-4.5%
202414-22-00.0%-25.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mets' struggles after victories stem from a combination of organizational inconsistency and the psychological burden of expectations that has plagued this franchise for decades. New York's tendency to follow wins with subpar performances reflects deeper issues with maintaining momentum and focus, particularly evident during their championship drought years when the pressure to build on success often led to overthinking and tight play. This pattern intensifies when the Mets face elevated expectations following quality wins, especially against division rivals or in nationally televised games. The team's history of dramatic collapses has created a culture where players and coaching staff often second-guess successful formulas, leading to lineup tinkering and strategic adjustments that disrupt the rhythm that produced the initial victory. The franchise's volatile ownership changes and front office turnover have also contributed to inconsistent messaging and preparation standards. The psychological weight of playing in New York's intense media market amplifies this effect, as players frequently face heightened scrutiny after wins, creating pressure that manifests in the next game's performance. Smart bettors should target the Mets' opponents in bounce-back spots, particularly when New York is coming off impressive road victories or emotional divisional wins. This trend carries the most significance during pennant races and when the Mets are fighting for playoff positioning, as the stakes magnify their historical inability to sustain success.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New York Mets's ATS record as after a win?

The New York Mets have an ATS record of 184-189-1 when playing after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a slightly below-average performance against the spread in these situations.

Is betting on the New York Mets as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the New York Mets after a win has not been profitable, showing a -5.8% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Bettors would have lost money consistently following this strategy.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Mets' 49.3% ATS win rate after victories is slightly below the typical 50% expectation for spread betting. The -5.8% ROI indicates underperformance compared to break-even expectations in these spots.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.