Minnesota Twins Home Underdog Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Minnesota Twins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Minnesota Twins hold a record of 188-34-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +61.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $137 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 21-1-0 | 0.0% | +82.2% |
| 2015 | 21-5-0 | 0.0% | +54.2% |
| 2016 | 16-3-0 | 0.0% | +60.8% |
| 2017 | 17-5-0 | 0.0% | +47.5% |
| 2018 | 12-2-0 | 0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2019 | 20-1-0 | 0.0% | +81.8% |
| 2020 | 21-2-0 | 0.0% | +74.3% |
| 2021 | 12-4-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2022 | 22-4-0 | 0.0% | +61.5% |
| 2023 | 12-4-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2024 | 14-3-0 | 0.0% | +57.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Minnesota Twins' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from their historically strong fan support at Target Field and the psychological advantage of being undervalued in their own ballpark. When oddsmakers set the Twins as home dogs, it typically reflects concerns about their pitching matchup or recent form, but these situations often create line value because the market tends to overreact to short-term struggles while underestimating the comfort factor of familiar surroundings. Minnesota's roster construction over this period has consistently featured players who thrive in clutch situations and respond well to adversity. The team's ability to manufacture runs through small ball tactics and timely hitting becomes magnified when they're motivated by disrespect from the betting public. Target Field's dimensions and playing conditions give the Twins subtle advantages that visiting teams may not fully account for, particularly in day games where shadows and wind patterns favor the home club. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Minnesota home underdog spots often represent market inefficiencies, especially when the line movement suggests sharp action on the Twins despite public sentiment favoring the visitor. This trend carries the most weight during divisional matchups and weekend series when fan energy peaks and the psychological elements are strongest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Minnesota Twins's ATS record as home underdog?
The Minnesota Twins have an exceptional 188-34-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to an outstanding 84.7% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.
Is betting on the Minnesota Twins as home underdog profitable?
Yes, betting on the Minnesota Twins as home underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 61.7% ROI. This represents one of the most profitable betting trends in baseball over the past decade.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as typical ATS win rates hover around 50%. The Twins' 84.7% ATS rate as home underdogs is exceptionally rare and well above normal expectations.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.