The data suggests caution when backing the Minnesota Twins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Minnesota Twins are just 39-197-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -68.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +68.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record39-197-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size236 games
ROI-68.5%
Units Won-161.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-24-00.0%-78.8%
20150-17-00.0%-100.0%
20162-17-00.0%-79.9%
20177-16-00.0%-41.9%
20181-14-00.0%-87.3%
20196-12-00.0%-36.4%
20205-13-00.0%-47.0%
20213-21-00.0%-76.1%
20226-26-00.0%-64.2%
20234-23-00.0%-71.7%
20242-14-00.0%-76.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Twins' catastrophic performance as road favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual road capabilities. Minnesota has historically been built around Target Field's unique dimensions and homer-friendly conditions, creating a stark contrast when they travel to different ballparks. Their offensive approach, often centered on pull-heavy sluggers who thrive in their home environment, frequently struggles to translate against unfamiliar pitching staffs and park factors on the road. The psychological burden of being favored away from home compounds these issues. Teams expecting the Twins to win often overlook Minnesota's tendency to play tight in pressure situations, particularly when their power-dependent offense faces quality opposing pitching. The franchise's organizational culture has traditionally emphasized manufacturing runs at home while relying too heavily on the long ball in hostile environments where crowd energy favors the opposition. Bettors should consistently fade Minnesota as road chalk, especially when they're favored by more than a run against teams with solid home records. This trend carries the most weight during divisional road series and interleague play, where the Twins face unfamiliar opponents in parks that don't suit their offensive profile.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Minnesota Twins's ATS record as away favorite?

The Minnesota Twins have a 39-197-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 39 out of 236 games. This represents an extremely poor 16.5% ATS win rate in this situation.

Is betting on the Minnesota Twins as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Minnesota Twins as away favorites is highly unprofitable with a -68.5% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 68.5 cents for every dollar wagered on the Twins in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS over time. The Twins' 16.5% ATS rate as away favorites represents one of the worst situational trends in MLB betting during this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.