The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Milwaukee Brewers are just 10-33-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -55.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +55.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record10-33-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size43 games
ROI-55.6%
Units Won-23.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-6-00.0%-72.7%
20151-6-00.0%-72.7%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20181-5-00.0%-68.2%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20212-3-00.0%-23.6%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20233-3-00.0%-4.5%
20240-3-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Brewers' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their organizational approach to roster management and pitching philosophy. Milwaukee has historically relied on aggressive bullpen usage and strategic rest patterns, making back-to-back games particularly challenging when they're expected to dominate. When forced into consecutive games without proper preparation time, their depth limitations become exposed against opponents who arrive more rested and motivated to upset the favorite. The psychological factor cannot be overlooked either. Milwaukee's fanbase creates high expectations when the team is favored at home, but zero rest scenarios often coincide with schedule compression that disrupts the Brewers' methodical game preparation. Their hitters tend to press in these spots, while opposing pitchers frequently deliver their best performances against a supposedly tired favorite. The betting market consistently overvalues Milwaukee's home field advantage while underestimating how fatigue affects their specific roster construction. Smart bettors should target Milwaukee's opponents when the Brewers are laying significant chalk on zero rest, particularly against teams with veteran leadership or strong road records. This trend carries the most weight during summer stretches when schedule density peaks and the Brewers' depth is most tested.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Brewers's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 10-33-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 23.3% ATS win rate over 43 games.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable, showing a -55.6% ROI. This trend has resulted in consistent losses for bettors over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical MLB home favorite trends, which usually cover around 48-52% ATS. The Brewers' 23.3% rate in this situation represents a major negative outlier.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.