The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Milwaukee Brewers are just 46-191-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -63.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +63.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record46-191-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size238 games
ROI-63.0%
Units Won-149.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201410-18-00.0%-31.8%
20158-19-00.0%-43.4%
20167-19-00.0%-48.6%
20176-14-00.0%-42.7%
20183-23-00.0%-78.0%
20193-17-00.0%-71.4%
20202-12-00.0%-72.7%
20213-22-00.0%-77.1%
20222-15-00.0%-77.5%
20231-12-00.0%-85.3%
20241-20-10.0%-90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Brewers' struggles as road favorites stem from their organizational identity as a small-market team that historically builds around pitching depth and situational hitting rather than overwhelming talent. When oddsmakers install Milwaukee as road favorites, they're often overvaluing the Brewers' recent success while underestimating how their conservative, grind-it-out style translates poorly to hostile environments where they're expected to control games. Milwaukee's roster construction typically features solid but unspectacular offensive pieces that rely heavily on American Family Field's unique dimensions and familiar surroundings. Their pitching staff, while often effective at home, tends to struggle with command on the road when facing lineups that have adjusted to their tendencies. The psychological pressure of being favored away from home creates a perfect storm for a franchise more comfortable as underdogs. The Brewers' recent decline in this spot reflects their transition from playoff contender to rebuilding mode, yet books continue pricing them as favorites based on name recognition and past performance. Smart bettors should view Milwaukee road favorites as automatic fade opportunities, particularly against divisional opponents who know their weaknesses intimately. This trend becomes most valuable when the Brewers are favored by more than a run on the road, especially in day games following night games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Brewers's ATS record as away favorite?

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 46-191-1 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 19.3% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances in this situation across all MLB teams.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as away favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -63.0% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 63 cents for every dollar wagered over this 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Brewers' 19.3% cover rate as away favorites represents an extreme statistical outlier and one of the worst situational betting trends in MLB.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.