Miami Marlins Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Miami Marlins hold a record of 42-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +25.3% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $16 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2015 | 4-5-0 | 0.0% | -15.2% |
| 2016 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2018 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 6-1-0 | 0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2021 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2022 | 6-1-0 | 0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2023 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Marlins' success as small underdogs stems from their organizational identity as scrappy underdogs who thrive when expectations are low. Miami has historically operated with limited payrolls and young rosters, creating a team culture that embraces the underdog mentality. When oddsmakers price them as slight dogs, it often reflects market perception rather than true talent gaps, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games. Miami's pitching development system has consistently produced arms that can neutralize superior offensive lineups on any given night. Their young starters often enter games with less pressure and more freedom to attack the zone aggressively, while veteran hitters tend to elevate their performance when facing marquee opponents. The franchise's tendency to play spoiler, especially against NL East rivals, creates additional motivation in these spots. The psychological edge extends to their home ballpark dynamics at loanDepot Park, where the dimensions and conditions can level the playing field against more talented visiting clubs. Teams expecting easy victories against Miami often face unexpected resistance from players fighting for roster spots and future contracts. This trend holds maximum value during divisional series and interleague play, where Miami's familiarity with opponents and pride factor create the perfect storm for outperforming modest expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The Miami Marlins have a 42-22-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 65.6% ATS win rate over 64 games in this betting situation.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Miami Marlins as small underdogs (+1 to +3) has been highly profitable with a 25.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This strong return is backed by their 42-22 ATS record in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Marlins' 65.6% ATS win rate and 25.3% ROI as small underdogs significantly outperforms typical league averages. Most teams struggle to maintain above 52-53% ATS win rates, making Miami's performance in this spot exceptional.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.