The Miami Marlins show mixed results as three or more days rest. Since 2014, they're 148-137-0 against the spread—a 0.0% win rate with an ROI of -0.9%. While not a strong standalone angle, this data provides valuable context when combined with other factors.

⚖ Neutral
Record148-137-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size285 games
ROI-0.9%
Units Won-2.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201414-14-00.0%-4.5%
201511-11-00.0%-4.5%
201613-15-00.0%-11.4%
201711-17-00.0%-25.0%
201811-15-00.0%-19.2%
201915-10-00.0%+14.6%
202013-13-00.0%-4.5%
202118-8-00.0%+32.2%
202218-6-00.0%+43.2%
202312-17-00.0%-21.0%
202412-11-00.0%-0.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Marlins' mediocre performance after extended rest reflects the franchise's historically inconsistent roster construction and organizational instability. Unlike teams with veteran leadership and established routines, Miami has frequently relied on young, inexperienced players who struggle to maintain rhythm during layoffs. Extended breaks often disrupt the timing of developing hitters and the command of young pitchers who need consistent work to stay sharp. Miami's organizational culture has also lacked the depth and infrastructure to maximize preparation during rest periods. Teams with strong coaching staffs and veteran presence typically use extra days to fine-tune mechanics and game-plan effectively. The Marlins, however, have often operated with limited resources and frequent personnel changes, making it difficult to capitalize on additional preparation time. The franchise's tendency to trade away established veterans at the deadline further compounds this issue, leaving younger players without experienced guidance during crucial stretches. When the roster lacks veteran leadership, extended rest becomes a liability rather than an advantage, as players lose competitive edge without proper mentorship. This trend matters most during weekend series after Thursday off-days and following rainouts, particularly when Miami faces disciplined, well-coached opponents who better utilize their preparation time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Miami Marlins have an ATS record of 148-137-0 when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 51.9% ATS win rate over 285 games.

Is betting on the Miami Marlins as three or more days rest profitable?

Betting on the Miami Marlins with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -0.9% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite covering the spread slightly more often than not, the negative return indicates poor betting value.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Marlins' 51.9% ATS rate with extended rest is slightly above the typical 50% baseline but below most profitable thresholds. The -0.9% ROI suggests underperformance compared to league averages for similar rest situations.

ANALYZE This Trend

This trend is near break-even. Combine with other factors and compare odds before placing any bets.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.