Miami Marlins One Day Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as one day rest, the Miami Marlins are just 63-74-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2015 | 7-3-0 | 0.0% | +33.6% |
| 2016 | 7-9-0 | 0.0% | -16.5% |
| 2017 | 3-8-0 | 0.0% | -47.9% |
| 2018 | 8-10-0 | 0.0% | -15.2% |
| 2019 | 5-7-0 | 0.0% | -20.4% |
| 2020 | 6-8-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 5-6-0 | 0.0% | -13.2% |
| 2022 | 6-10-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2023 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2024 | 7-7-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Marlins' struggles on one day of rest stem from their organizational philosophy that has consistently prioritized player development over immediate competitive success. This approach creates a roster construction issue where young, inexperienced pitchers and position players haven't developed the physical conditioning and mental resilience needed for baseball's demanding schedule compression. Miami's frequent rebuilding cycles have resulted in lineups filled with prospects who lack the veteran leadership necessary to navigate the subtle adjustments required when facing opponents on short rest. The team's bullpen depth, historically thin due to budget constraints, becomes particularly exposed in these scenarios where starters may need early relief and relievers face back-to-back usage patterns. The psychological factor cannot be understated - the Marlins have cultivated a culture where individual development takes precedence over winning, creating less urgency in high-leverage situations that one-day rest games often present. Players pressing to impress scouts and management may abandon their disciplined approaches when fatigue sets in. For bettors, this trend becomes most valuable when the Marlins face teams with strong veteran leadership on one day of rest, particularly during summer months when Miami's young roster shows the most pronounced fatigue effects.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as one day rest?
The Miami Marlins have an ATS record of 63-74-0 when playing on one day of rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.0% ATS win rate over 137 total games.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as one day rest profitable?
No, betting on the Miami Marlins on one day of rest is not profitable, showing a -12.2% ROI. Their 46.0% ATS win rate indicates they consistently fail to cover the spread in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Marlins' 46.0% ATS rate on one day of rest is below the typical league average of around 50%. Their -12.2% ROI suggests significantly worse performance than most teams in this rest scenario.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.