Miami Marlins Large Underdog (+7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Miami Marlins hold a record of 168-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +81.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $144 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 17-1-0 | 0.0% | +80.3% |
| 2015 | 15-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 10-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 15-1-0 | 0.0% | +79.0% |
| 2018 | 19-2-0 | 0.0% | +72.7% |
| 2019 | 16-1-0 | 0.0% | +79.7% |
| 2020 | 13-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 17-2-0 | 0.0% | +70.8% |
| 2022 | 16-2-0 | 0.0% | +69.7% |
| 2023 | 12-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 18-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Miami Marlins' remarkable performance as massive underdogs stems from their organizational identity as baseball's ultimate spoiler franchise. When oddsmakers set lines at +7.5 runs or higher, they're essentially writing off Miami entirely, creating inflated spreads that fail to account for the fundamental unpredictability of baseball. The Marlins thrive in these spots because they've built their culture around playing loose and aggressive when expectations are nonexistent. Miami's roster construction plays directly into this dynamic. Their young, hungry players often perform better without pressure than established stars do under scrutiny. The Marlins frequently deploy unconventional strategies in blowout scenarios - pulling starters early, using position players to pitch, or experimenting with lineups - which can lead to unexpected offensive explosions or keep games closer than anticipated through quirky bullpen management. The psychological edge cannot be understated. Opposing teams often approach these games with reduced intensity, assuming victory is inevitable. Meanwhile, Miami players understand these are their opportunities to make statements and potentially impact their careers through standout performances in low-stakes environments. This trend matters most during day games following night losses, interleague play, and late-season matchups where playoff-bound opponents might rest key players while Miami maintains full competitive intensity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?
The Miami Marlins have an ATS record of 168-9-0 when they are large underdogs of +7.5 runs or more from 2014-2024. This represents an exceptional 94.9% ATS win rate over 177 total games.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Miami Marlins as large underdogs has been extremely profitable with an 81.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite their poor overall performance in these games, they consistently exceed expectations against the spread.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly above league average, as most teams struggle to cover large spreads consistently. The Marlins' 94.9% ATS rate as big underdogs is exceptionally rare and represents one of the most profitable betting trends in baseball.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.