The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Miami Marlins are just 13-38-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -51.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +51.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record13-38-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size51 games
ROI-51.3%
Units Won-26.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20161-6-00.0%-72.7%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20181-3-00.0%-52.3%
20190-6-00.0%-100.0%
20202-5-00.0%-45.5%
20211-5-00.0%-68.2%
20221-4-00.0%-61.8%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20244-3-00.0%+9.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Marlins' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the organizational depth and player development infrastructure to handle compressed schedules effectively. Miami's roster construction over the past decade has consistently prioritized cost-cutting over building a deep, resilient lineup capable of performing when physically and mentally taxed. When favored at home without rest, the psychological pressure amplifies these structural weaknesses, as players who might normally rise to the occasion in underdog scenarios instead feel the weight of expectations they're not equipped to handle. The team's notorious inconsistency with bullpen management becomes particularly pronounced in these spots. Marlins managers have repeatedly leaned too heavily on limited relief options during back-to-back situations, leading to blown leads and late-inning collapses that directly impact spread coverage. The franchise's transient nature, with frequent roster turnover and lack of veteran leadership, means there's rarely enough clubhouse stability to navigate the mental grind of consecutive games as betting favorites. Smart bettors should target Miami's opponents in these exact scenarios, particularly when the Marlins are coming off emotional wins or extra-inning affairs. This trend carries the most weight during summer stretches when heat and humidity compound fatigue factors at Marlins Park.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Miami Marlins have a 13-38-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 25.5% ATS win rate over 51 total games.

Is betting on the Miami Marlins as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Marlins as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. The -51.3% ROI indicates significant losses, with bettors losing over half their investment on average.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS. The Marlins' 25.5% ATS rate in this situation is among the worst trends in baseball betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.