The public often underestimates the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Miami Marlins hold a record of 178-37-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +58.0% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $125 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record178-37-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size215 games
ROI+58.0%
Units Won+124.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201416-3-00.0%+60.8%
201515-2-00.0%+68.5%
201614-5-00.0%+40.7%
201719-4-00.0%+57.7%
201816-4-00.0%+52.7%
201913-1-00.0%+77.3%
202022-5-00.0%+55.6%
202117-2-00.0%+70.8%
202213-5-00.0%+37.9%
202313-2-00.0%+65.5%
202420-4-00.0%+59.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Marlins' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from their unique organizational psychology and the inherent dynamics of loanDepot Park. Miami has historically operated as a small-market franchise that thrives when expectations are low, creating a perfect storm when oddsmakers undervalue them at home. The team's young core often plays with nothing-to-lose mentality against superior opponents, while their pitching staff benefits from the pitcher-friendly dimensions of their ballpark that can neutralize powerful offensive clubs. Miami's home environment becomes particularly potent when they're catching plus-money because visiting favorites often struggle with the humid conditions and the spacious foul territory that can extend at-bats. The Marlins' familiarity with these conditions, combined with their tendency to elevate their play against better competition, creates consistent value opportunities. Their recent organizational focus on developing homegrown talent has also produced players who perform better in familiar surroundings when facing adversity. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Miami's underdog status at home often reflects market perception rather than actual game dynamics. This trend carries the most weight during interleague play and when facing AL East rivals, where the Marlins' desperation to prove themselves against higher-payroll opponents creates maximum value.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as home underdog?

The Miami Marlins have an outstanding 178-37-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This represents one of the most successful situational betting trends in baseball over the past decade.

Is betting on the Miami Marlins as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Miami Marlins as home underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 58.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This trend has consistently delivered strong returns for bettors over a 10-year sample size.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams struggle to maintain profitable ATS records in any specific situation. The Marlins' 82.8% ATS win rate as home underdogs is exceptionally rare in professional sports betting.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.