Miami Marlins After a Win Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Miami Marlins are just 198-207-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.7%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 20-16-0 | 0.0% | +6.1% |
| 2015 | 16-15-0 | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| 2016 | 16-23-0 | 0.0% | -21.7% |
| 2017 | 16-15-0 | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| 2018 | 20-21-0 | 0.0% | -6.9% |
| 2019 | 17-20-0 | 0.0% | -12.3% |
| 2020 | 19-26-0 | 0.0% | -19.4% |
| 2021 | 14-19-1 | 0.0% | -19.0% |
| 2022 | 23-24-0 | 0.0% | -6.6% |
| 2023 | 16-11-0 | 0.0% | +13.1% |
| 2024 | 21-17-0 | 0.0% | +5.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Marlins' struggles following victories reveal a franchise plagued by inconsistency and mental fragility that stems from years of organizational instability. Miami has operated with a revolving door of managers, front office personnel, and roster turnover that creates an environment where players struggle to build momentum and confidence. When the Marlins do manage to win, they often lack the veteran leadership and championship mentality needed to capitalize on positive momentum. The team's post-win letdowns typically manifest through poor starting pitching performances and defensive miscues. Miami's young rotation has historically shown a pattern of following strong outings with flat, uninspired efforts, suggesting preparation and focus issues rather than talent deficiencies. The bullpen's inconsistency compounds these problems, as relievers often enter high-leverage situations without the confidence that comes from playing for a winning organization. Miami's offensive approach also contributes to this trend. The lineup frequently relies on boom-or-bust performances, making it difficult to string together consistent scoring when facing motivated opponents who view games against the Marlins as opportunities to bounce back from their own struggles. Bettors should target fading Miami as road favorites after wins, particularly when they're facing teams coming off losses, as opponents tend to view these matchups as prime bounce-back spots.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as after a win?
The Miami Marlins have gone 198-207-1 against the spread (ATS) after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.8% ATS win rate over 406 total games in this situation.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as after a win profitable?
No, betting on the Miami Marlins after a win is not profitable. The team has produced a -6.7% return on investment (ROI), meaning bettors would lose $6.70 for every $100 wagered over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Marlins' 48.8% ATS win rate after victories is slightly below the expected 50% break-even rate. While not drastically different from league norms, the negative ROI indicates consistent underperformance against the betting market in this situation.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.