Los Angeles Dodgers Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Dodgers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Los Angeles Dodgers are just 10-166-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -89.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +89.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-15-0 | 0.0% | -59.8% |
| 2015 | 2-15-0 | 0.0% | -77.5% |
| 2016 | 0-12-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-12-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-19-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-14-0 | 0.0% | -87.3% |
| 2020 | 0-19-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 1-19-0 | 0.0% | -90.5% |
| 2022 | 2-11-0 | 0.0% | -70.6% |
| 2023 | 0-15-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 0-15-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Dodgers' disastrous performance as massive favorites stems from the inherent difficulty of laying such enormous spreads in baseball, where even elite teams rarely win by margins exceeding 7-8 runs. When oddsmakers set lines this high, they're essentially betting that the Dodgers will deliver a blowout performance against significantly weaker opposition, but baseball's variance-heavy nature makes such outcomes extremely rare regardless of talent disparity. Los Angeles often finds itself in these spots when facing rebuilding teams or during interleague play against weak AL opponents, situations where the public heavily backs the superior roster. However, the Dodgers' methodical, pitching-focused approach doesn't naturally lend itself to run-differential dominance. Their bullpen management philosophy often prioritizes long-term health over short-term dominance in lopsided games, while opposing teams frequently play spoiler with nothing-to-lose mentalities. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. When laying massive numbers, even veteran Dodgers teams can experience the subconscious letdown that comes with perceived "easy" matchups, leading to flat performances that keep games closer than expected. This trend matters most during late-season series against eliminated teams and early-season interleague matchups where talent gaps appear most pronounced on paper.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Los Angeles Dodgers's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have an ATS record of 10-166-0 when favored by 7.5 runs or more from 2014-2024. This translates to a 5.7% ATS win rate across 176 games as large favorites.
Is betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Dodgers as large favorites (-7.5+) is extremely unprofitable with an ROI of -89.2%. Bettors would lose nearly 90 cents on every dollar wagered following this strategy.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than typical large favorite trends in MLB. Most teams struggle to cover large spreads, but the Dodgers' 5.7% ATS rate is exceptionally poor even by large favorite standards.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.