The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Angels in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Los Angeles Angels are just 35-178-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -68.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +68.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record35-178-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size213 games
ROI-68.6%
Units Won-146.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-16-00.0%-61.8%
20153-14-00.0%-66.3%
20162-12-00.0%-72.7%
20171-24-00.0%-92.4%
20181-14-00.0%-87.3%
20193-13-00.0%-64.2%
20204-19-00.0%-66.8%
20215-16-00.0%-54.5%
20223-18-00.0%-72.7%
20236-16-00.0%-47.9%
20243-16-00.0%-69.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Angels' disastrous performance as home favorites stems from a perfect storm of organizational dysfunction and inflated market expectations. Despite having generational talents like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani on the roster, the franchise has consistently failed to build competent supporting casts, particularly in pitching depth and bullpen reliability. When oddsmakers set the Angels as favorites at home, they're often overvaluing star power while underweighting the team's systemic weaknesses that become magnified under pressure. The psychological burden of being favored appears particularly toxic for this franchise. Angels players have repeatedly shown they struggle with expectations, often playing tight and making crucial errors in late-game situations when they're supposed to close out victories. Their bullpen collapses have become legendary, turning comfortable leads into devastating losses that crush both team morale and bettors' bankrolls. The market continues to overreact to the Angels' offensive firepower while ignoring their fundamental flaws in roster construction and game management. Smart bettors should consistently fade the Angels when they're home favorites, especially against divisional opponents who know their weaknesses intimately. This trend matters most during April and May when early-season optimism inflates their odds before reality sets in.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Los Angeles Angels's ATS record as home favorite?

The Los Angeles Angels have a 35-178-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 35 of 213 games. This represents an extremely poor 16.4% ATS win rate in this situation.

Is betting on the Los Angeles Angels as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Los Angeles Angels as home favorites is highly unprofitable with a -68.6% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 69 cents for every dollar wagered on the Angels in this scenario.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS. The Angels' 16.4% ATS rate as home favorites represents one of the worst trends in modern sports betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.