The public often underestimates the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Houston Astros hold a record of 84-14-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +63.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $63 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record84-14-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size99 games
ROI+63.6%
Units Won+62.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-0-00.0%+90.9%
201510-1-10.0%+73.5%
20164-2-00.0%+27.3%
20179-1-00.0%+71.8%
20187-2-00.0%+48.5%
20198-1-00.0%+69.7%
202013-0-00.0%+90.9%
20214-2-00.0%+27.3%
20227-4-00.0%+21.5%
20236-0-00.0%+90.9%
20248-1-00.0%+69.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The Astros' dominance as home underdogs following wins stems from a perfect storm of psychological and situational advantages that create exceptional betting value. When Houston enters their home ballpark as an underdog after a victory, they're typically facing elite pitching matchups or superior opponents on paper, yet their recent success breeds the exact confidence needed to overcome talent disparities. Houston's organizational culture under their current regime emphasizes resilience and systematic preparation, traits that become amplified when they're disrespected by oddsmakers despite coming off positive momentum. The team's analytical approach allows them to exploit specific matchup advantages that casual bettors and even some sharps might overlook when fixated on surface-level talent gaps. Their home environment at Minute Maid Park, with its unique dimensions and familiar conditions, provides additional edge when facing unfamiliar opponents. The psychological element cannot be understated - teams riding momentum while playing with house money as underdogs often perform with the perfect blend of confidence and urgency. This creates a dangerous opponent for favorites who may approach the game expecting easier competition. This trend holds maximum value when Houston faces elite teams in divisional or interleague play, particularly when the betting public heavily backs the visiting favorite based on reputation rather than current form and matchup specifics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Houston Astros have an exceptional 84-14-1 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to an 85.7% ATS win rate over 99 games.

Is betting on the Houston Astros as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Astros as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 63.6% ROI. This represents one of the most consistent and profitable betting trends in baseball over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly exceeds the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Astros' 85.7% ATS rate in this scenario is exceptionally rare and well above typical expectations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.