The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Houston Astros are just 33-190-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -71.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +71.8%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record33-190-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size223 games
ROI-71.8%
Units Won-160.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-20-00.0%-75.1%
20154-18-00.0%-65.3%
20164-17-00.0%-63.6%
20172-19-00.0%-81.8%
20183-17-00.0%-71.4%
20196-10-00.0%-28.4%
20201-21-00.0%-91.3%
20213-23-00.0%-78.0%
20223-14-00.0%-66.3%
20231-9-00.0%-80.9%
20243-22-00.0%-77.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Astros' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental disconnect between their home dominance and road execution under pressure. Houston has built their recent success around precise execution of their analytical approach - optimized lineups, strategic bullpen usage, and data-driven decision making. This system thrives in the controlled environment of Minute Maid Park, where familiar conditions and crowd support amplify their methodical style. On the road, however, the pressure of being favored often forces them into uncharacteristic aggressive play that contradicts their patient, systematic approach. Houston's reliance on veteran leadership and experience becomes a liability when facing motivated underdogs in hostile environments. Teams playing the Astros as road favorites typically employ high-energy, small-ball tactics that disrupt Houston's rhythm and force them out of their comfort zone. The Astros' tendency to rely heavily on their starting rotation means that when road starters struggle early, their carefully constructed game plans unravel quickly. The most actionable insight for bettors is targeting Houston road favorites in divisional games, where familiarity breeds contempt and opponents are particularly motivated to upset the analytical darlings. This trend carries the most weight in April and May, when the Astros are still calibrating their road identity and opponents are fresh and hungry to make statements.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as away favorite?

The Houston Astros have a 33-190-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 33 of 223 games. This translates to an extremely poor 14.8% cover rate in this situation.

Is betting on the Houston Astros as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Astros as away favorites is highly unprofitable with a -71.8% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst betting trends in baseball, consistently failing to cover spreads.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Astros' 14.8% cover rate as away favorites represents an extreme negative outlier in sports betting data.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.