The data suggests caution when backing the Detroit Tigers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Detroit Tigers are just 47-159-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -56.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +56.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record47-159-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size206 games
ROI-56.4%
Units Won-116.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-18-00.0%-65.3%
20158-18-00.0%-41.3%
20162-17-00.0%-79.9%
20173-11-00.0%-59.1%
20183-17-00.0%-71.4%
20192-9-00.0%-65.3%
20206-13-00.0%-39.7%
202110-19-00.0%-34.2%
20223-11-00.0%-59.1%
20233-13-00.0%-64.2%
20243-13-00.0%-64.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Tigers' struggles as home favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and organizational reality during their prolonged rebuild. Detroit's home field advantage at Comerica Park has been neutralized by inconsistent pitching depth and a lineup that frequently fails to capitalize on run-scoring opportunities against inferior opponents. When oddsmakers install the Tigers as favorites, they're often overvaluing recent hot streaks or individual performances that don't reflect the team's underlying structural weaknesses. The psychological burden of favoritism has particularly plagued Detroit's young core, who tend to press in situations where they're expected to dominate. This manifests in poor situational hitting with runners in scoring position and defensive miscues that turn manageable games into blowouts. The team's bullpen construction during the rebuilding years has been especially problematic in maintaining leads, as management prioritized development over proven late-game reliability. Sharp bettors should consistently fade Detroit as home chalk, particularly when they're favored by more than a run against teams with comparable records. This trend carries maximum weight during interleague play and against divisional opponents, where familiarity should theoretically benefit the home team but instead exposes Detroit's tactical limitations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Detroit Tigers's ATS record as home favorite?

The Detroit Tigers have an ATS record of 47-159-0 as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 22.8% of games. This represents one of the worst home favorite ATS performances in MLB over this period.

Is betting on the Detroit Tigers as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Detroit Tigers as home favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -56.4% ROI from 2014-2024. A $100 bet on every Tigers home favorite game would have resulted in a loss of approximately $5,640.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most home favorites typically cover around 45-50% of the time. The Tigers' 22.8% cover rate as home favorites ranks among the worst in MLB during this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.