Colorado Rockies Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Colorado Rockies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Colorado Rockies are just 8-168-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -91.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +91.3%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-14-0 | 0.0% | -87.3% |
| 2015 | 1-19-0 | 0.0% | -90.5% |
| 2016 | 0-11-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-13-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-14-0 | 0.0% | -87.3% |
| 2019 | 0-16-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-14-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2021 | 0-15-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 0-19-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-17-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 3-16-0 | 0.0% | -69.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rockies' catastrophic performance as large favorites stems from fundamental organizational weaknesses that become magnified when expectations soar. Colorado has consistently struggled with pitching depth and bullpen reliability, issues that prove fatal when they're expected to dominate inferior opponents. The thin air at Coors Field creates a false sense of offensive security, but road games as heavy favorites expose their pitching vulnerabilities against teams that should be overmatched. The psychological element cannot be ignored. This franchise lacks the championship culture and mental toughness required to handle pressure situations. When Vegas sets them as substantial favorites, it typically reflects a matchup against a struggling opponent or a hot streak that may be unsustainable. The Rockies have historically folded under these elevated expectations, playing down to competition rather than stepping on throats when given the opportunity. The betting market has been slow to adjust to this pattern, creating persistent value on the underside. Smart bettors should view Colorado as a large favorite with extreme skepticism, particularly on the road where their home field advantages disappear. This trend matters most during interleague play and against rebuilding National League opponents when the betting market overvalues temporary hot streaks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Colorado Rockies's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Colorado Rockies have an 8-168-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5+ runs from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 8 of 176 games. This represents a historically poor 4.5% cover rate in large favorite situations.
Is betting on the Colorado Rockies as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Colorado Rockies as large favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -91.3% ROI. Bettors would have lost over 91 cents for every dollar wagered on the Rockies in these situations over the past decade.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most MLB teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Rockies' 4.5% cover rate as large favorites represents one of the worst ATS trends in modern baseball betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.