Cleveland Guardians vs Conference Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Guardians in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs conference opponent, the Cleveland Guardians are just 141-149-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 11-6-0 | 0.0% | +23.5% |
| 2015 | 8-13-0 | 0.0% | -27.3% |
| 2016 | 14-22-0 | 0.0% | -25.8% |
| 2017 | 18-18-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 13-14-1 | 0.0% | -8.1% |
| 2019 | 14-12-0 | 0.0% | +2.8% |
| 2020 | 10-15-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2021 | 16-15-0 | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| 2022 | 16-10-0 | 0.0% | +17.5% |
| 2023 | 11-8-0 | 0.0% | +10.5% |
| 2024 | 10-16-0 | 0.0% | -26.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Guardians' struggles against conference opponents stem from their organizational philosophy of building around pitching depth and defensive fundamentals rather than explosive offensive capability. This approach works well against unfamiliar National League teams who haven't studied their tendencies extensively, but American League opponents have developed detailed scouting reports on Cleveland's predictable offensive patterns and conservative managerial decisions. Cleveland's pitching staff, while generally solid, tends to rely heavily on command and location rather than overpowering stuff. AL teams see these pitchers multiple times per season, allowing hitters to make adjustments that NL opponents rarely get the chance to implement. The Guardians also struggle with the familiarity factor in their bullpen usage - opposing managers know exactly when and how Cleveland will deploy their relievers, making late-game situations more predictable. The franchise's emphasis on manufacturing runs through small ball tactics becomes less effective when facing teams that have studied their base-running tendencies and defensive positioning throughout the season. AL opponents can better anticipate Cleveland's strategic moves, neutralizing their situational advantages. This trend carries the most weight during divisional series and late-season matchups when playoff positioning is at stake, as the familiarity factor reaches its peak intensity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cleveland Guardians's ATS record as vs conference opponent?
The Cleveland Guardians have a 141-149-1 ATS record when playing against conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.6% ATS win rate over 291 games.
Is betting on the Cleveland Guardians as vs conference opponent profitable?
No, betting on the Cleveland Guardians against conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -7.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing Cleveland in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is below the expected 50% ATS win rate that represents break-even betting. The -7.2% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than average, making it a losing betting strategy over the 11-year period.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.