The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Guardians in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as one day rest, the Cleveland Guardians are just 57-68-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record57-68-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size126 games
ROI-12.9%
Units Won-16.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20147-5-00.0%+11.4%
20155-6-00.0%-13.2%
20163-7-00.0%-42.7%
20177-10-00.0%-21.4%
20188-7-10.0%+1.8%
20197-6-00.0%+2.8%
20204-5-00.0%-15.2%
20213-6-00.0%-36.4%
20224-5-00.0%-15.2%
20234-6-00.0%-23.6%
20245-5-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Guardians' struggles on one day of rest stem from their organizational philosophy that prioritizes long-term player health over short-term performance optimization. Cleveland's front office has consistently emphasized pitch counts and workload management, often leading to bullpen decisions that prioritize rest over matchup advantages in these compressed schedule scenarios. This analytical approach creates a cascading effect where the team's depth players - typically weaker performers - see increased usage when regulars need additional recovery time. The Guardians' roster construction has historically favored younger, developing players who may lack the experience to handle the mental adjustment required for back-to-back intensity. Their systematic approach to player development means they're more likely to stick with predetermined rest patterns regardless of game situation or betting market expectations. The psychological factor cannot be overlooked either. Cleveland's conservative organizational culture often translates to overly cautious in-game management, particularly when dealing with compressed schedules where every decision feels magnified. Bettors should be most wary of backing Cleveland on one day of rest when they're facing teams known for aggressive, high-energy play styles, as the contrast in approach becomes most pronounced in these scheduling spots.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cleveland Guardians's ATS record as one day rest?

The Cleveland Guardians have a 57-68-1 ATS record when playing on one day of rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45.2% ATS win rate over this 11-year period.

Is betting on the Cleveland Guardians as one day rest profitable?

No, betting on the Cleveland Guardians with one day of rest has not been profitable, showing a -12.9% ROI. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Cleveland in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Guardians' 45.2% ATS win rate on one day of rest is below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. Their -12.9% ROI suggests they consistently underperform expectations in this rest scenario compared to league norms.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.