The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Guardians in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Cleveland Guardians are just 4-55-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -87.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +87.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-55-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size59 games
ROI-87.1%
Units Won-51.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20151-5-00.0%-68.2%
20160-4-00.0%-100.0%
20170-10-00.0%-100.0%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20190-8-00.0%-100.0%
20200-3-00.0%-100.0%
20211-4-00.0%-61.8%
20220-7-00.0%-100.0%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20240-7-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Guardians' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their organizational philosophy that prioritizes player health and long-term development over short-term wins. Cleveland's front office has consistently built rosters around young, developing talent who require careful workload management, making them particularly vulnerable when forced into back-to-back situations without adequate preparation time. This team's identity revolves around small-ball tactics, defensive positioning, and situational hitting - all elements that deteriorate significantly when players are fatigued. Unlike power-hitting clubs that can overcome tired legs with one swing, Cleveland relies on precise execution across multiple at-bats and defensive plays. When operating on zero rest, their margin for error shrinks dramatically, and the accumulated mental fatigue affects their ability to execute the fundamentals that define their success. The psychological pressure of being favored at home compounds these physical limitations. Cleveland players often press when expected to perform as favorites, abandoning their patient approach at the plate in favor of trying to force big moments. This creates a cascade effect where their typically reliable bullpen faces higher-leverage situations earlier in games. Bettors should target Cleveland's opponents in these spots, particularly when the Guardians are laying moderate chalk after playing the previous day. This trend carries the most weight during summer months when heat and humidity amplify fatigue factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cleveland Guardians's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Cleveland Guardians have a 4-55-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 6.8% ATS win rate, meaning they've failed to cover the spread in 55 of 59 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Cleveland Guardians as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Cleveland Guardians as home favorites on zero rest is highly unprofitable with an -87.1% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 87 cents for every dollar wagered on Cleveland in this specific situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical league averages, which generally hover around 50% ATS. The Guardians' 6.8% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the most consistent negative betting trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.