The public often underestimates the Cleveland Guardians in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Cleveland Guardians hold a record of 88-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +73.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $71 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record88-9-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size97 games
ROI+73.2%
Units Won+71.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201413-0-00.0%+90.9%
20157-3-00.0%+33.6%
201616-0-00.0%+90.9%
20179-0-00.0%+90.9%
20185-0-00.0%+90.9%
20193-1-00.0%+43.2%
20206-1-00.0%+63.6%
20217-1-00.0%+67.0%
20229-1-00.0%+71.8%
20238-1-00.0%+69.7%
20245-1-00.0%+59.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Guardians' exceptional performance as home underdogs following victories stems from their organizational identity as a scrappy, fundamentally sound team that thrives when expectations are lowered. Cleveland's front office has consistently built rosters around speed, defense, and situational hitting rather than star power, creating a team culture that embraces the underdog role. When oddsmakers undervalue them at Progressive Field after a win, they're essentially betting against a club that has mastered the art of playing with house money. The psychological edge becomes particularly pronounced when Cleveland enters these spots with momentum from a recent victory. Their young core players tend to feed off the energy of playing meaningful games at home while being dismissed by the betting market. The team's emphasis on manufacturing runs through small ball tactics becomes even more effective when opponents expect them to struggle, as visiting teams often prepare for power rather than Cleveland's aggressive baserunning and situational hitting approach. Smart bettors should target this trend most aggressively during the middle months of the season when the Guardians have established their identity but haven't yet gained widespread respect from oddsmakers and the betting public.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cleveland Guardians's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Cleveland Guardians have an exceptional 88-9-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 90.7% ATS win rate across 97 games in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Cleveland Guardians as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Cleveland Guardians as home underdogs after a win has been extremely profitable with a 73.2% ROI. This trend has produced consistent returns over the 11-year period from 2014-2024.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly exceeds the league average, as most teams hover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Guardians' 90.7% ATS rate in this scenario represents one of the strongest situational trends in baseball betting.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.