Cleveland Guardians Home Games Betting Trend

The Guardians' mediocre home ATS performance stems largely from inflated public expectations at Progressive Field. Cleveland's passionate fanbase and the team's reputation for scrappy, fundamentally sound baseball often leads oddsmakers to shade lines in favor of the home team, particularly against perceived weaker opponents. This creates consistent value fade scenarios where the betting public overvalues the home field advantage. Progressive Field's dimensions and playing conditions contribute to this trend as well. The ballpark's spacious foul territory and unpredictable wind patterns off Lake Erie can neutralize offensive advantages that bettors might expect from familiar surroundings. The Guardians have historically built their roster around pitching and defense rather than explosive offensive capability, making them less likely to blow out opponents at home and cover larger spreads. The team's conservative managerial approach also plays a role, as Cleveland tends to play close, methodical games that often fall short of inflated run totals and point spreads. Their bullpen-heavy strategy frequently keeps games within narrow margins regardless of early leads. This trend matters most when Cleveland is favored by more than 1.5 runs at home, particularly against division rivals where familiarity breeds competitive games and the public overestimates home dominance.