Cleveland Guardians Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Guardians in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Cleveland Guardians are just 13-74-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -71.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +71.5%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2015 | 1-7-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2016 | 3-11-0 | 0.0% | -59.1% |
| 2017 | 1-9-0 | 0.0% | -80.9% |
| 2018 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2019 | 3-13-0 | 0.0% | -64.2% |
| 2020 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2021 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2023 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Guardians' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and organizational identity. Cleveland has built its modern success around small-ball tactics, elite pitching, and defensive fundamentals - attributes that translate better to underdog scenarios where they can grind out victories rather than impose their will as expected favorites. When the Guardians lose on the road, they face the psychological challenge of bouncing back in an environment where oddsmakers expect them to control the game. Their offensive limitations become magnified in these spots, as they lack the power-hitting core that typically justifies road favorite status. The team's reliance on manufacturing runs through speed and situational hitting creates vulnerability when opponents can dictate tempo and force Cleveland into unfavorable counts. The coaching staff's conservative approach, while effective in close games, often fails to generate the decisive advantages that road favorites need to cover spreads. Cleveland tends to play within themselves rather than elevate their aggression level, leading to narrow wins that fall short of market expectations. This trend carries the most weight when Cleveland faces teams with strong home records or when they're coming off losses where their bullpen was heavily utilized, creating additional strain on their pitching depth advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cleveland Guardians's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Cleveland Guardians have a 13-74-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 13 of 87 games. This represents an extremely poor 14.9% cover rate in this specific situation.
Is betting on the Cleveland Guardians as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Cleveland Guardians as away favorites after a loss is highly unprofitable with a -71.5% ROI. This trend has been one of the worst betting scenarios in baseball over the past decade.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Guardians' 14.9% cover rate in this situation is exceptionally poor and represents a strong fade opportunity.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.