Cincinnati Reds vs Non-Conference Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Cincinnati Reds are just 229-260-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -10.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +10.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 21-24-0 | 0.0% | -10.9% |
| 2015 | 21-17-0 | 0.0% | +5.5% |
| 2016 | 18-28-0 | 0.0% | -25.3% |
| 2017 | 17-32-0 | 0.0% | -33.8% |
| 2018 | 27-22-0 | 0.0% | +5.2% |
| 2019 | 20-17-0 | 0.0% | +3.2% |
| 2020 | 14-23-0 | 0.0% | -27.8% |
| 2021 | 28-23-1 | 0.0% | +4.8% |
| 2022 | 18-20-0 | 0.0% | -9.6% |
| 2023 | 25-32-0 | 0.0% | -16.3% |
| 2024 | 20-22-0 | 0.0% | -9.1% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Reds' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from their inconsistent organizational identity during this period. As a small-market franchise frequently caught between rebuilding and competing, Cincinnati often lacks the roster depth and strategic flexibility needed to adapt to unfamiliar American League lineups and ballparks. The team's pitching staff, historically built around National League hitters who don't face designated hitters regularly, gets exposed when forced to navigate deeper AL lineups with more consistent power threats. Cincinnati's front office approach during this timeframe emphasized player development over immediate results, meaning younger, less experienced players were frequently thrust into high-leverage interleague situations. These developmental players often struggle with the mental adjustment required when facing completely unfamiliar opponents, leading to poor execution in crucial moments. The franchise's tendency to trade away veteran leadership at trade deadlines further compounds this issue, leaving inexperienced clubhouses to navigate the unique challenges of interleague play. Smart bettors should target fading Cincinnati when they face American League teams with strong offensive depth, particularly those featuring multiple switch-hitters or left-handed power. This trend carries the most weight during mid-season interleague series when the Reds' roster construction weaknesses become most apparent against well-constructed AL lineups.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?
The Cincinnati Reds have a 229-260-1 ATS record when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.8% ATS win rate over this 11-year period.
Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as vs non-conference opponent profitable?
No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -10.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Reds in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Reds' 46.8% ATS win rate against non-conference opponents falls below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. Their -10.6% ROI significantly underperforms compared to successful betting strategies that aim for positive returns.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.