The public often underestimates the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Cincinnati Reds hold a record of 179-45-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +52.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $118 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record179-45-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size225 games
ROI+52.6%
Units Won+117.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201413-4-00.0%+46.0%
201516-1-00.0%+79.7%
201616-2-00.0%+69.7%
201715-3-00.0%+59.1%
201813-8-00.0%+18.2%
201917-7-10.0%+35.2%
202012-5-00.0%+34.8%
202119-6-00.0%+45.1%
202218-3-00.0%+63.6%
202325-4-00.0%+64.6%
202415-2-00.0%+68.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Reds' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from a perfect storm of psychological and strategic advantages that consistently catch oddsmakers off-guard. Cincinnati thrives when backed against the wall at Great American Ball Park, where the intimate atmosphere and passionate fanbase create an environment that elevates role players and motivates veterans to exceed expectations. The franchise has historically built rosters around scrappy, fundamentally sound players who perform better when the pressure is off and expectations are lowered. Great American Ball Park's dimensions favor Cincinnati's typical roster construction, with its shorter foul territory giving hitters more chances and the prevailing wind patterns often neutralizing opposing power advantages. When the Reds are home underdogs, it typically means they're facing superior offensive teams, but Cincinnati's pitching staff has consistently shown the ability to limit damage through strategic bullpen usage and defensive positioning that maximizes their ballpark's unique characteristics. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Cincinnati's underdog value peaks against high-powered offensive teams that struggle with situational hitting and small-ball tactics. This trend carries the most weight during divisional matchups and against teams with inflated road offensive numbers, where the Reds' familiarity with their home environment provides maximum competitive advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as home underdog?

The Cincinnati Reds have an outstanding 179-45-1 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to a 79.9% ATS win rate over 225 games.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Cincinnati Reds as home underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 52.6% ROI. This represents one of the most profitable betting trends in baseball over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly exceeds the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Reds' 79.9% ATS rate as home underdogs is exceptionally rare and well above typical expectations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.