The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Cincinnati Reds are just 203-212-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record203-212-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size416 games
ROI-6.6%
Units Won-27.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201415-19-00.0%-15.8%
201514-11-00.0%+6.9%
201621-21-00.0%-4.5%
201714-21-00.0%-23.6%
201826-26-00.0%-4.5%
201916-17-00.0%-7.4%
202010-21-00.0%-38.4%
202124-19-10.0%+6.5%
202220-17-00.0%+3.2%
202328-20-00.0%+11.4%
202415-20-00.0%-18.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Reds' struggles after victories stem from a combination of organizational inconsistency and psychological factors that have plagued the franchise for over a decade. Cincinnati has operated as a rebuilding team for much of this period, with young rosters prone to emotional swings and inconsistent execution. When the Reds capture momentum with a win, they often face inflated public perception and betting lines that don't account for their underlying talent deficiencies. The team's pitching depth has been particularly vulnerable in these spots, as their rotation beyond ace-level starters lacks the consistency to maintain quality starts in back-to-back games. Cincinnati's bullpen usage patterns also suggest they often exhaust their best relievers during victories, leaving them shorthanded for the following contest. The franchise's developmental approach means key players are frequently learning on the job, making the mental adjustment from celebration to preparation more challenging than for veteran-laden clubs. Bettors should target Cincinnati as road favorites after home wins, where the combination of travel fatigue and overconfidence creates the most value. This trend carries maximum weight during summer months when the Reds face quality opponents who can exploit their post-victory vulnerabilities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as after a win?

The Cincinnati Reds have gone 203-212-1 against the spread (ATS) after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a win rate of 48.8% over 416 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds after a win has not been profitable. The team has produced a negative -6.6% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost money consistently over this 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the expected break-even rate of 52.4% needed to overcome standard -110 betting odds. The Reds' 48.8% ATS win rate after victories indicates they consistently fail to cover spreads in this situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.