Cincinnati Reds After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a loss, the Cincinnati Reds are just 215-221-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 18-19-0 | 0.0% | -7.1% |
| 2015 | 18-23-0 | 0.0% | -16.2% |
| 2016 | 19-22-0 | 0.0% | -11.5% |
| 2017 | 22-32-0 | 0.0% | -22.2% |
| 2018 | 20-15-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2019 | 23-20-1 | 0.0% | +2.1% |
| 2020 | 14-21-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2021 | 19-12-0 | 0.0% | +17.0% |
| 2022 | 20-19-0 | 0.0% | -2.1% |
| 2023 | 24-18-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2024 | 18-20-0 | 0.0% | -9.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Reds' struggles after losses stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the mental resilience to bounce back from adversity. Cincinnati's organizational approach tends to emphasize fundamentals over psychological preparation, leaving players vulnerable to carrying negative momentum from one game to the next. This manifests particularly in their pitching staff's tendency to compound problems - when starters struggle after a loss, the bullpen often follows suit, creating cascading effects that oddsmakers consistently underestimate. The team's mid-market payroll constraints exacerbate this issue, as Cincinnati rarely has the depth to absorb poor performances from key players. When their core contributors are pressing to make up for previous failures, it creates a ripple effect throughout the lineup. The franchise's inconsistent playoff appearances also mean many players lack experience managing the emotional swings of a long season, making them more susceptible to extended rough patches. Sharp bettors should focus on fading Cincinnati after losses when they're facing quality starting pitching, particularly during divisional play where familiarity breeds additional pressure. This trend carries the most weight during the middle months of the season when roster limitations become most apparent and before September call-ups provide fresh energy.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as after a loss?
The Cincinnati Reds have a 215-221-1 ATS record when betting on them after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 49.2% ATS win rate over this 11-year period.
Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds after a loss is not profitable, showing a -5.9% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors following this strategy.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Reds' 49.2% ATS win rate after losses is slightly below the typical break-even point of 52.4% needed to overcome standard sportsbook juice. This performance is marginally worse than average, contributing to the negative ROI.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.