Chicago White Sox Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago White Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Chicago White Sox are just 6-161-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -93.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +93.1%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-15-0 | 0.0% | -88.1% |
| 2015 | 1-14-0 | 0.0% | -87.3% |
| 2016 | 0-21-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-13-0 | 0.0% | -86.4% |
| 2018 | 1-10-0 | 0.0% | -82.6% |
| 2019 | 0-17-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-17-0 | 0.0% | -89.4% |
| 2021 | 0-21-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 0-11-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-17-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The White Sox's catastrophic performance as large favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and organizational reality. When sportsbooks install Chicago as massive favorites, they're typically responding to opponent weakness rather than White Sox strength, creating inflated lines that don't account for the team's systemic issues with execution under pressure. Chicago's struggles in these spots reflect deeper problems with roster construction and clubhouse culture that become magnified when expectations rise. The organization has consistently fielded teams built around individual talent rather than cohesive units, leading to inconsistent performances precisely when they should dominate inferior opponents. Their pitching staff, in particular, has shown a troubling tendency to pitch to the level of competition, allowing weaker lineups to stay competitive through walks and defensive lapses. The psychological burden of being heavily favored appears to weigh heavily on a franchise accustomed to disappointment. Players press when they're expected to cruise, leading to the kind of fundamental mistakes that keep games closer than they should be. This trend matters most when Chicago faces rebuilding teams or call-up heavy lineups in late-season scenarios, where the talent gap should be widest but rarely materializes on the scoreboard.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Chicago White Sox's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Chicago White Sox have a 6-161-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5+ runs from 2014-2024, covering the spread just 3.6% of the time. This represents one of the worst large favorite ATS performances in MLB history.
Is betting on the Chicago White Sox as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Chicago White Sox as large favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -93.1% ROI. A $100 bet on every game would have resulted in losing over $93 of every $100 wagered.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, where large favorites typically cover around 50% of the time. The White Sox's 3.6% cover rate as large favorites is historically poor and represents a massive negative outlier.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.